JINHUI(603919) 太平洋·2025-03-25 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jinhui Liquor (603919) with a target price of 20.93, compared to the last closing price of 19.02 [1]. Core Views - Jinhui Liquor's performance meets expectations, with a continued upgrade in product structure [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.59%, and a net profit of 388 million yuan, up 18.03% year-on-year [4][8]. - The product structure has improved, with products priced above 100 yuan accounting for 70.7% of total sales, an increase of 3.3 percentage points [5]. - The company has implemented a strategy of "one county, one policy" to enhance channel coverage in provincial markets, while focusing on expanding into sample markets outside the province [5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 693 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.11%, but a slight decline in net profit to 55 million yuan, down 2.05% year-on-year [4][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 60.92%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin at 50.13%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.280 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, and a net profit target of 408 million yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [6][7]. Sales and Distribution - Sales through distributors, direct sales (including group purchases), and online channels reached 2.744 billion yuan, 74 million yuan, and 84 million yuan respectively, with online sales growing rapidly, particularly on platforms like JD and Douyin [5]. - The company expanded its distributor network, ending 2024 with 288 distributors in the province and 713 outside, netting an increase of 16 and 121 distributors respectively [5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates revenue growth rates of 9%, 10%, and 10%, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 13% respectively [7][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.82 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.03 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 21x, and 18x [7][8].