Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.46, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 2.04 [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 3.34 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, which is 15% higher than previous expectations. This is attributed to higher-than-expected compensation for shut-down hydropower projects, reduced operational costs for wind and solar projects, and a 7% decrease in financial expenses [6][15]. - The company plans to maintain a final dividend of RMB 0.14 per share, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company has a total renewable energy capacity target of 21 GW by 2025, with a current construction of 2.1 GW, primarily in solar projects. The ability to meet this target will be assessed in the upcoming half-year report [6][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 20.45 billion - 2024: RMB 20.56 billion (0.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 21.88 billion (6.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 23.67 billion (8.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 25.41 billion (7.4% YoY growth) [3][15]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 3.15 billion - 2024: RMB 3.34 billion (6.1% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 3.70 billion (11.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 4.13 billion (12.0% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 4.55 billion (10.3% YoY growth) [3][15]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 7.5% for 2025 and 2026, which is considered attractive [6][15]. Operational Data - The company’s installed capacity is projected to grow significantly: - Wind power: from 5,566 MW in 2023 to 11,958 MW in 2027 - Solar power: from 3,818 MW in 2023 to 10,368 MW in 2027 - Total renewable energy capacity: from 14,500 MW in 2023 to 27,486 MW in 2027 [8][9]. - The proportion of wind and solar power in total capacity is expected to increase from 64.7% in 2023 to 81.2% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.2x for 2025, based on a five-year historical average, with a target price adjustment reflecting the company's improved operational cost management [6][15]. - The company’s book value per share is projected to increase from RMB 3.72 in 2023 to RMB 5.06 in 2027 [3][15].
京能清洁能源：2024年经营开支控制优于预期，每股分红仍慷慨-20250326