Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a price target of 10,000 per ton on March 20, before retreating to under $9,850 per ton, but remains up 12% year-to-date [4]. - The recent strength in LME copper prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of Section 232 on US copper tariffs and a positive shift in sentiment regarding China's economic outlook [4]. - The report anticipates a market deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, with stockpiling in the US making the global market appear tighter [4]. - China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) plans to increase copper stockpiles in 2025, which is seen as a defensive measure against potential shortages rather than opportunistic buying [4]. Summary by Sections - Price Trends: The LME copper price has shown volatility, with a significant increase driven by tariff-related factors and positive sentiment from China [4][10]. - Market Dynamics: The report highlights the influence of US trade policy updates on copper prices, indicating potential risks from upcoming announcements [4]. - Forecasts: The report outlines a bullish price forecast for copper, with specific quarterly targets leading up to 2026, reflecting expectations of strong demand and supply constraints [10].
高盛：铜，短期谨慎，长期看多
高盛·2025-03-26 05:07