Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The total passenger volume shows an increase in international flights and a decrease in domestic flights, with a reduction in total flights [3][4] - Domestic flights are boosted by regional infrastructure development, leading to a significant increase in regional flight numbers [8] - International flights have recovered to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, with an improvement in the share of foreign carriers [13][18] - Major airlines such as Huaxia, Spring Airlines, and Air China have significantly increased their market shares [22][23] - Airport expansions and renovations are facilitating the release of mainline resources [32][34] - Cargo flights have decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while international flights have increased [43] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - In the summer of 2025, the total weekly passenger flight volume is 130,000 flights, which is a 15% increase compared to summer 2019, but a 3.3% decrease compared to summer 2024 [5] - Domestic flights account for 113,000 flights weekly, showing a 22.4% increase from summer 2019 but a 3.8% decrease from summer 2024 [5][12] - International flights total 15,000 weekly, reflecting a 16.4% decrease from summer 2019 but a 4% increase from summer 2024 [5][18] Domestic Market - The domestic passenger flight volume for summer 2025 is 112,569 flights per week, with a breakdown of 57.1% mainline to mainline, 36.3% mainline to regional, and 6.6% regional to regional [12] - The introduction of regional airports and the large-scale deployment of domestic regional aircraft have significantly expanded regional connectivity [12] International Market - The international passenger flight volume for summer 2025 is 14,780 flights weekly, recovering to 85% of the levels seen in summer 2019 [18] - The share of international carriers has improved to 42%, recovering to 81% of the levels seen in summer 2019 [18][20] Airline Performance - Among listed airlines, only Huaxia Airlines has seen an increase in passenger flight volume year-on-year, while others like Juneyao, Hainan, and China Southern have experienced declines [23] - Huaxia, Spring Airlines, and Air China have shown significant growth in flight volumes compared to summer 2019, with increases of 48%, 39%, and 17% respectively [23][28] Airport Developments - Major airports such as Haikou, Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen flight volume increases exceeding 15% compared to summer 2019 [34] - The expansion and renovation of airports have led to significant growth in flight capacity, particularly in Guangzhou and Shanghai [34] Cargo Transport - The total weekly cargo flight volume for summer 2025 is 7,561 flights, which is a 66.7% increase compared to summer 2019 but a 4.8% decrease compared to summer 2024 [44]
2025夏航季航班换季计划解读
华源证券·2025-03-26 05:55