Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.82 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year to 18.1 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year to 5.5 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024. The fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of 10.8% and a net profit increase of 20% [1][2]. - The proposed dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is 0.385 RMB per share, representing a 20% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 42% and a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 6.75% [1][2]. - The company benefits from a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate context, enhancing its investment appeal [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's toll road revenue and segment profit are expected to grow by 2.3% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing approximately 72% to the net profit [2]. - The growth in truck and passenger vehicle traffic is driven by the economic prosperity in Zhejiang province, with GDP growth of 5.5% and total import and export growth of 7.4% [2]. Brokerage Performance - The brokerage segment experienced a significant improvement in profitability in Q4 2024, with a 32% year-on-year increase in segment profit, driven by a more active market following favorable policy changes [3]. - The overall contribution of the brokerage business to net profit for 2024 is approximately 14% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2.6% and 0.6% to 5.71 billion RMB and 5.88 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 introduced at 6.20 billion RMB [4]. - The target price has been raised to 7.82 HKD, reflecting an increase in the valuation of the Hong Kong financial sector and a decrease in the risk-free interest rate [4][11]. Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of 0.95 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 5.99 and a PB ratio of 0.70 [5][20]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.75% for the next few years [20].
浙江沪杭甬：盈利与分红超预期，股息率有吸引力-20250326