JIULI Hi-tech(002318) 华泰证券·2025-03-26 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.44 [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.918 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.490 billion, which is in line with previous expectations [1][2]. - The sales volume of composite pipes saw a significant increase of 247.24% year-over-year, driven by the completion of overseas project acquisitions [2]. - The company plans to distribute a high dividend ratio of 61.74% for 2024, the highest since 2019, reflecting strong shareholder returns [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 3.775 billion, a year-over-year increase of 56.36% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 63.23% [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 27.63%, with Q4 gross margin at 28.96%, showing a slight decrease due to the sales rhythm of high-end products [2]. Sales and Product Mix - The sales volumes for welded pipes, seamless pipes, and composite pipes in 2024 were 63.7 thousand tons, 61.2 thousand tons, and 28.7 thousand tons, respectively, with composite pipes showing a notable increase [2]. Investment and Acquisitions - The company’s overseas investment project, EBK, contributed a net profit of RMB 220 million in 2024, while the joint venture alloy company contributed RMB 109 million [3]. - The company plans to reduce its stake in Yongxing Materials by up to 15.83 million shares to optimize its asset structure and focus on core business development [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 1.77, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.07, respectively [5]. - The report adjusts the 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 15.5 times, reflecting the anticipated performance from overseas projects and increased production capacity [5].