Zoomlion(000157) 中信建投·2025-03-26 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [11][17]. Core Views - The company's revenue is projected to slightly decline by 3.39% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to a downturn in the domestic cycle, while overseas markets are expected to grow by over 30%, with revenue contribution surpassing 50% [1][9]. - The company is experiencing stable improvement in profitability, with a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit after excluding share-based payment expenses [1][9]. - The engineering machinery industry is anticipated to witness a simultaneous upward trend in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by the company's ongoing diversification and internationalization efforts [1][10]. Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue is expected to be 454.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year [2][3]. - Revenue breakdown by business segments includes: - Concrete machinery: 80.13 billion yuan, down 6.80% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.68% [3]. - Lifting machinery: 147.86 billion yuan, down 23.35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.41% [3]. - Earth-moving machinery: 66.71 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.18% [3]. - Aerial work machinery: 68.33 billion yuan, up 19.74% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.71% [3]. - Agricultural machinery: 46.50 billion yuan, up 122.29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.25% [3]. Profitability Summary - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 35.20 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [2][9]. - After excluding share-based payment impacts, the adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.72% [9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 28.17%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to rise to 8.81%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [9][12]. Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand, with various investment areas such as rural, water conservancy, and renewable energy showing positive trends [10]. - The overseas market is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 15%, particularly in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Europe [10]. - The company is actively pursuing diversification, with its revenue from emerging sectors exceeding 48%, reducing reliance on traditional real estate-related businesses [10].