YADEA(01585) 开源证券·2025-03-26 09:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong market position and is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities in the second half of the year [7][9] - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance in 2025 and beyond, with net profits projected at 2.673 billion yuan in 2025, 3.248 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.002 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery from 2024 [7][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of 34.763 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.640 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, Net profit of 1.272 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 38.182 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.673 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 44.369 billion yuan, Net profit of 3.248 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 51.370 billion yuan, Net profit of 4.002 billion yuan [7][9] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to sell 13.02 million electric two-wheelers, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, with total revenue from this segment at 19.335 billion yuan, also down 21.4% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to policy changes and high inventory levels [7][9] - The average selling price (ASP) of electric two-wheelers is projected to increase by 3.1% to 2,169 yuan per unit, despite a significant drop in unit profit by 38.8% to 98 yuan per unit due to issues with product pricing [7][9] Industry Outlook - The introduction of new national standards is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies like the one in focus. The company plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into international markets, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand [9][7]