永兴材料（002756）：2024年年报点评：成本控制优异，分红回购双高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance slightly missed expectations, with asset disposals negatively impacting profits. The special steel business remains stable, and lithium carbonate cost control is excellent, with a gradual increase in production expected [3][11] - The target price has been adjusted to 41.80 yuan, down from the previous 55.75 yuan, based on a revised profit forecast due to ongoing weak lithium prices [2][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8,074 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,043 million yuan, down 69.4% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw revenue of 1,843 million yuan, a decline of 25.8%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 79.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been revised to 1,125 million yuan and 1,398 million yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at 1,631 million yuan [11] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 528 million yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, alongside a share buyback of 350 million yuan, representing 84.23% of the net profit for the period [11] Business Operations - The special steel segment reported production and sales of 305,000 tons and 303,000 tons, respectively, both down approximately 2% year-on-year. The company is actively pursuing ultra-low emission upgrades, with clean transportation and unorganized emissions passing audits [11] - In the lithium segment, the total sales volume for lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected at 26,000 tons, with a unit production cost of approximately 47,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the 53,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [11] - The company is expanding its mining capacity, with the Huashan porcelain stone mine expansion ongoing, expected to increase raw ore capacity to 9 million tons per year [11]