日度策略参考-2025-03-27

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: PTA, Urea [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rapeseed Oil, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Raw Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping European Line [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments and logical viewpoints for various varieties in different industries, including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and others. It also offers corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis of supply, demand, cost, policy, and market sentiment factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Index Futures: Long IH and IF varieties are relatively stable; be aware of the increased volatility risk of IM and use options for risk hedging [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1] - Gold: It is expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment at a high level in the short term and still has upward space in the long term [1] - Silver: It is expected to have a wide - range shock at a high level in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The expectation of domestic copper smelter production cuts is rising, but high copper prices suppress downstream demand, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices [1] - Aluminum: The previous decline in the US dollar index strengthened aluminum prices; recently, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has shown a signal of peaking, but there is a lack of short - term price drivers, and the price moves in a shock [1] - Alumina: The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, the supply - surplus pattern continues, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline is expected to slow down in the short term after the futures price falls below the cost line [1] - Zinc: The short - term zinc price still has support due to the suspension of processing fee increase, and there is a strong expectation of domestic increase and external decrease. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on London zinc and short on Shanghai zinc [1] - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policy changes. The Indonesian policy is repeatedly disturbed, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the nickel - iron price has recently rebounded, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts have increased significantly. Pay attention to downstream consumption [1] - Tin: There is a trend of calming down in the unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the expectation of tin mine复产 is strengthening, which suppresses the tin price. However, there is still a short - term supply contradiction in tin mines, and the tin price is still expected to be strong in a shock before the复产 news is clearly implemented [1] - Industrial Silicon: Supply is strengthening, there is an expectation of复产 in the southwest during the wet season in the far - month; demand remains low; deliverable products are sufficient [1] - Carbonate Lithium: The supply - demand gap is widening; the apparent inventory continues to accumulate; the downstream raw material inventory is high, and the restocking space is limited; the support logic of downstream purchases for prices is falsified [1] Black Metals - Threaded Steel: Demand seasonally rebounds in March. The price support lies in the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the upper pressure lies in the insufficient elasticity of demand explosion and the need to digest winter - storage inventory [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: Overseas anti - dumping and additional tariffs may have some impact on exports, but domestic production cuts will have the most direct impact on hot - rolled coil output. There is no clear directional trading opportunity for now [1] - Iron Ore: The expectation of accelerated steel mill复产 supports the iron ore price, but the equal - control expectation also suppresses the iron ore price [1] - Manganese Silicon: Inventory is high, but the cost has support [1] - Ferrosilicon: The cost is loosening, but the production area is cutting production, and the social inventory is neutral [1] - Glass: Demand is released in pulses. Pay attention to demand performance. Capital game is intense, and the upward space is limited [1] - Soda Ash: The short - term supply复产 expectation is increasing, and demand may increase, but there is a medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging after the futures price rises to a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is a game between the "strong reality" of low inventory and the "weak expectation" of strong supply and weak demand in the producing area. The near - month contract fluctuates widely, and wait for the opportunity to go short on the far - month contract [1] - Soybean Oil: There is a lack of themes in the producing area, and the domestic inventory is at a high level, lacking a driving force for now [1] - Rapeseed Oil: This round of price increase is mainly affected by the emotional impact of the tariff event. If the palm oil price starts to fall, rapeseed oil will also return to the weak reality. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract [1] - Cotton: If crude oil continues to find a bottom, cotton - spinning demand may be weak. The substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on cotton prices. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is negative for the long - term US cotton price [1] - Raw Sugar: Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have triggered market concerns about international supply shortages, and the recent raw sugar price has risen strongly. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the output has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, suppressing the upward space of the domestic market [1] - Corn: The spot market is weak. Wait for the port pressure to be released. It is expected to have a short - term callback pressure and maintain a strong shock in the medium - term under the expectation of tightening supply and demand [1] - Soybean Meal: It is expected that the weak spot price will drag the futures price down in the short term, but the spot supply is expected to tighten in early April, which may bring a stage - based rebound in the basis. Considering the strong bottom support of the US market, based on the expectation of disturbances in the US soybean planting area and yield, and the firm Brazilian premium under the trade war, it is recommended to go long on the far - month contract at a low price with a light position [1] - Pulp: The port inventory is accumulating, which exerts great pressure on the futures price. Wait for the peak season to be confirmed and the inventory to be depleted before taking a long position [1] - Logs: The spot price has fallen due to the increase in arrival volume and poor downstream demand. The overseas quotation has strong support. Take a long position after the demand warms up [1] - Live Pigs: With the continuous repair of the live - pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price is expected to be obvious, and it is at a large discount to the spot price. There is no bright spot in the downstream [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement weakens market sentiment; the Middle East geopolitical situation has uncertainties; the short - term oil price has fallen a lot and may have a rebound demand [1] - Asphalt: The cost side drags down the price; the inventory is still low but continues to accumulate; the demand is slowly recovering, and there are expectations at the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan [1] - Shanghai Rubber: A new round of rubber - tapping season is coming; the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating; there is no clear trading logic in the short term [1] - BR Rubber: Although there is an expectation of maintenance, the spot sales are blocked, and the trading atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the domestic butadiene rubber market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the price is difficult to rise [1] - PTA: MX performs strongly, the market spot price continues to strengthen, and the PX price has strong support, but the sustainability of the strength needs to be observed [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the downstream buying sentiment of ethylene glycol is improving, and coal - based plants have started maintenance [1] - Short Fiber: The processing fee of short - fiber factories will be compressed, and the market's willingness to hold goods is still very low [1] - Styrene: The price of US - dollar pure benzene continues to fall, and the market price has dropped significantly, hitting a recent low [1] - Urea: In the short term, most factories have sufficient orders to be delivered, and the willingness to support the price is strong. It is expected that the urea price will run firmly [1] - Methanol: The basis is weakening. Do high - selling and low - buying on a single side. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is rigid. In the short term, the methanol spot market may operate regionally. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may rise slightly and then remain stagnant [1] - PE: Crude oil is weakening, orders are insufficient, and market sentiment is weak. PE fluctuates weakly [1] - PP: Both the cost side and the demand side are weak, and market sentiment is weak. PP fluctuates weakly [1] - PVC: Short - term exports are good, but the fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward [1] - Caustic Soda: The inventory is accumulating, the spot price is weakening, but the basis is large, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. In the short term, be cautious about short - selling due to price cuts. As the futures price begins to reflect the safety margin, you can try to go long on the peak - season contract with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread arbitrage [1]