Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure due to channel optimization, with a projected revenue of 6.589 billion and a net profit of 474 million for 2024, reflecting year-on-year declines of 5% and 43% respectively [1][4]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic mid-to-high-end women's fashion market, with expectations for sustained long-term growth driven by product operational efficiency and store expansion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financials: Revenue is expected to be 6.589 billion, with a net profit of 474 million, showing declines of 5% and 43% year-on-year respectively [1][5]. - 2025-2027 Projections: Forecasted net profits are 593 million, 682 million, and 776 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery trend after the 2024 dip [4][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.68 for 2024, with an increase to 0.84, 0.97, and 1.10 in the following years [5][12]. Brand Performance Summary - Brand Revenue: The Koradior brand is expected to generate 2.16 billion in revenue for 2024, down 10% year-on-year, while NAERSI and NEXY.CO show relative stability with revenues of 1.44 billion and 1.01 billion respectively [2]. - Product Strategy: The company is focusing on a streamlined product strategy, reducing the total number of SKUs by 7.4% to 5,894, emphasizing core styles [2]. Channel Performance Summary - Channel Revenue Breakdown: In 2024, revenue from direct sales is projected at 5.17 billion, down 7% year-on-year, while e-commerce is expected to grow by 17% to 1.13 billion [3]. - Store Count Changes: The number of direct stores decreased by 81 to 1,444, while franchise stores decreased by 44 to 395, indicating a strategic channel optimization [3]. Dividend and Valuation Summary - Dividend Payout: The company plans a dividend payout ratio of approximately 53% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of about 4.9% based on the closing price on March 26, 2025 [1][4]. - Valuation Metrics: The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8 for 2025, suggesting attractive valuation levels [4][5].
赢家时尚：渠道优化顺利，短期利润承压，期待后续修复-20250327