中国经济金融展望报告

Economic Growth and Forecast - In Q1 2025, China's GDP is expected to grow by approximately 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year[5] - For Q2 2025, GDP growth is projected to rise to around 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from Q1[5][6] Domestic Demand and Policy Measures - Domestic macro policies are becoming more proactive, with a focus on enhancing internal demand to support economic recovery[6] - The government plans to expedite the implementation of fiscal policies, with a special bond of 300 billion yuan allocated to support consumption upgrades[13] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in Q2, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from Q1[22] - Manufacturing investment is projected to maintain a growth rate of 9% in early 2025, supported by policies promoting equipment upgrades[16] Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's exports amounted to 539.94 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, a decline of 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous year[24] - The export growth rate is expected to face further pressure due to the impact of new tariffs and reduced global demand[32] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Retail sales growth for January-February 2025 was recorded at 4%, with service consumption outpacing goods consumption[10] - The government’s consumption stimulus measures are anticipated to boost consumer spending, with retail sales expected to grow by 5.5% in Q2[14] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment is projected to decline by approximately 9% in Q2, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to Q1[21] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including increased funding for urban renewal projects[21] Inflation and Price Trends - In early 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[55] - The overall price level is expected to remain low, with CPI projected to stabilize around 0% in Q1 2025[55]