全球经济金融展望报告

Global Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand during Q1 2025, with manufacturing improving while service sector sentiment declined [6][7] - Consumer spending growth slowed down, and private investment remained low, while government spending saw moderate growth [11][12] - Global inflation risks are rising, with major economies exhibiting divergent fiscal and monetary policy stances [6][19] Supply and Demand Analysis - Agricultural production growth slowed due to decreased yields in key regions, while manufacturing continued to improve, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI of 50.6% in February 2025 [8][9] - Service sector PMI fell to 51.6% in February, reflecting a decline in service sector activity due to rising costs and reduced consumer spending [8][11] - Government spending accounted for 16.5% of GDP, showing an increase, while private investment, which constituted 28.1% of GDP, saw a decrease [9][12] Inflation Trends - Global inflation rates showed a deceleration in decline, with the US CPI decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% in February 2025, while the Eurozone CPI fell to 2.4% [15][16] - The anticipated global CPI growth for Q2 2025 is around 3.3%, with an annual projection of 3.6% [16][18] Trade Dynamics - Trump's tariff policies have begun to impact global trade, with significant tariffs imposed on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to varied export performance across major economies [19][21] - The global trade volume growth rate for Q1 2025 was adjusted downwards to 0.25%, indicating a slowdown in trade activity [19][21] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - Major economies are experiencing significant fiscal policy adjustments, with the US government implementing measures to increase revenue through tariffs while attempting to reduce spending [22][24] - The US federal budget deficit reached a record $1.15 trillion in the first five months of the fiscal year 2025, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges [22][24] Monetary Policy Landscape - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, while the European Central Bank continued its path of rate cuts to support economic recovery [27][28] - The divergence in monetary policy among major economies reflects the varying economic conditions and inflationary pressures faced by each [27][28]