Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 26, the overall capital market was balanced, the bond market strengthened significantly, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up collectively, and most convertible bond individual securities rose. Overseas, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - Domestic News: On March 26, the central department budgets for 2025 were publicly released. The Ministry of Finance emphasized the importance of budget disclosure. The State Council forwarded measures to support the cultivation and construction of international consumption - center cities. The results of the continuous reduction of non - performing loans in the banking industry are emerging, with different trends in different regions. A new wave of "land king tides" has emerged, with high - quality and high - price land concentrated in first - tier and strong second - tier cities [4][5][6]. - International News: On March 26, US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2. Two Federal Reserve voting members disagreed with Powell, believing that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be temporary [7][8]. - Commodities: On March 26, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI May crude oil futures rose 0.94% to 73.79 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.02% to 3.846 per ounce [9]. 3.2 Capital Market - Open Market Operations: On March 26, the central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.50%. With 295.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 159.5 billion yuan [11]. - Funding Rates: On March 26, the capital market was generally balanced. DR001 rose 0.30bp to 1.784%, and DR007 rose 7.57bp to 1.982% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - Interest - rate Bonds: - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On March 26, large - scale banks increased their allocation efforts, and the bond market strengthened significantly. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 240011 fell 2.85bp to 1.7775%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 fell 3.50bp to 1.8175% [15]. - Bond Tendering: The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 11 (Increment 3) with a term of 1.0932 years had an issue size of 11 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.5489%, a full - field multiple of 2.70, and a marginal multiple of 1.107. The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 10 (Increment 10) with a 10 - year term had an issue size of 13 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.9558%, a full - field multiple of 3.72, and a marginal multiple of 1.3588 [17]. - Credit Bonds: - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On March 26, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 29% [17]. - Credit Bond Events: Rongsheng Development plans to formulate a debt - for - equity plan. Zhongcheng Asia - Pacific revoked the long - term credit rating of Zhoushan Putuo Urban Construction [18]. - Convertible Bonds: - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On March 26, the three major A - share indices closed down, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.36%, 0.19%, and 0.62% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 59.624 billion yuan, a decrease of 697 million yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: On March 28, Yonggui Convertible Bond will be listed, and Taineng Convertible Bond will start online subscription. Multiple convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, etc. [24]. - Overseas Bond Markets: - US Bond Market: On March 26, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 3.98%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 2bp to 37bp, and the 5/30 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 3bp to 61bp [22][23]. - European Bond Market: On March 26, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield remained unchanged at 2.79%, France's rose 1bp, while Italy's and Spain's remained unchanged, and the UK's fell 3bp [26]. - Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds: As of the close on March 26, the prices of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [28].
资金面整体较为均衡，债市明显走强
东方金诚·2025-03-27 09:00