全球银行业展望报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable expansion in the banking industry with an overall recovery in profitability, while asset quality has slightly declined and capital adequacy remains relatively stable [2][5][15]. Core Insights - The global banking industry is facing both opportunities and challenges due to the evolving geopolitical landscape, with a focus on high-quality development in the banking sector in China [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of the Trump 2.0 era on U.S. financial deregulation policies and the implications for the banking industry, including the acceleration of the global net-zero emissions financial landscape [2][5][12]. Summary by Sections Global Banking Industry Overview - The global banking environment is experiencing increased uncertainty, with a projected global economic growth rate of 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024 [6][18]. - Major economies are entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a cautious recovery in credit demand and banking sector expansion [8][18]. Profitability Trends - U.S. banking sector net profit is projected to increase by 6.6% in the first half of 2025, while the Eurozone banking sector is expected to see a slight recovery after a decline of 9.2% in 2024 [19][21]. - The profitability of Japanese banks is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by strong overseas business performance [21]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of the global banking sector has shown signs of deterioration, with the U.S. non-performing loan rate increasing to 1.1% by mid-2025 [22][24]. - Emerging economies are experiencing a more favorable asset quality outlook due to rapid credit growth, which offsets the negative impacts of rising non-performing loans [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios across major economies remain stable, with the U.S. banking sector's capital adequacy ratio projected to rise to 15.9% by mid-2025 [25][26]. - Emerging market banks are expected to have greater capital replenishment capacity due to better profitability [25][26]. Strategic Adjustments - Major banks are actively adjusting their global operations in response to changing economic policies and geopolitical tensions, with HSBC and MUFG making significant divestments and acquisitions [34][35]. - The report notes that large banks are focusing on cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and branch closures, to enhance operational efficiency amid rising uncertainties [36]. Cryptocurrency Market Engagement - Global banks are increasingly entering the cryptocurrency market, with Standard Chartered and Citigroup planning to offer diverse financial services related to digital assets [33].