全球银行业展望报告2025年第2季度（总第62期）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable expansion in the banking sector with an overall recovery in profitability, while asset quality has slightly declined and capital adequacy remains relatively stable [2][5][15]. Core Insights - The global banking industry is facing both opportunities and challenges due to the evolving geopolitical landscape, with a focus on high-quality development in the banking sector in China [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of the Trump 2.0 era on U.S. financial deregulation policies and the implications for the banking sector, including the acceleration of the global net-zero emissions financial landscape [2][5][12]. Summary by Sections Global Banking Industry Overview - The global banking environment is experiencing increased uncertainty, with a projected global economic growth rate of 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024 [6][18]. - Major economies are entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a cautious expansion in banking sector size, particularly in the U.S. and Eurozone [18][19]. Profitability Trends - The profitability of the banking sector is expected to improve, with U.S. banks projected to see a net profit increase of 6.6% in the first half of 2025 [19][21]. - European banks are also expected to experience a slight recovery in profitability, although some banks may still face challenges due to regulatory pressures [20][21]. Asset Quality - There is a noted decline in asset quality across major economies, with the U.S. banking sector's non-performing loans increasing by 16.7% year-on-year [22][24]. - Emerging economies are showing resilience, with some banks maintaining stable asset quality despite the overall decline in developed markets [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios are relatively stable, with U.S. banks reporting a capital adequacy ratio of 15.71% at the end of 2024, an increase of 0.46 percentage points [25][26]. - Emerging market banks are expected to have more room for capital replenishment due to better profitability [25][26]. Strategic Adjustments - Major banks are actively adjusting their global strategies in response to changing economic policies and geopolitical tensions, with HSBC and MUFG making significant divestments and acquisitions [34][35]. - The report notes a trend of large banks reducing operational costs through layoffs and branch closures to enhance profitability amid uncertainty [36]. Cryptocurrency Market Engagement - Global banks are increasingly engaging in the cryptocurrency market, with Standard Chartered and Citigroup planning to offer diversified financial services related to digital assets [33].