Guolian Sec(601456) 开源证券·2025-03-27 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that investment income has negatively impacted performance, but there is optimism regarding the synergistic effects of acquiring Minsheng Securities [4][6] - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.68 billion and 400 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 41% [4] - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities was completed on January 3, 2025, and the report anticipates positive integration and business synergy effects [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the weighted average ROE was 2.19%, down by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with an end-of-year leverage ratio (excluding client margin) of 4.4 times, an increase of 0.1 times from the beginning of the year [4] - The brokerage and asset management businesses grew by 39% and 49% year-on-year, while investment banking and investment businesses declined by 31% and 20%, respectively, dragging down overall performance [4] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 850 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 115%, 33%, and 26% [4] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PB ratio of 1.6 for 2025, 1.5 for 2026, and 1.5 for 2027 [4] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including projected revenues and net profits for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 3.78 billion, 4.48 billion, and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively [7][9]