一拖股份（601038）：需求不振利润承压，看好拖拉机高端化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected profit growth for the upcoming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.9 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.92 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.17 billion RMB, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.18 billion RMB, which represents an increase in losses by 102.9% [1]. - The overall industry demand remains weak, with a notable increase in inventory destocking urgency [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company's comprehensive gross margin in the equipment manufacturing sector was 14.78%, down by 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts to enhance market share [2]. - The production of large tractors in China decreased by 12.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, while medium-sized tractors saw a significant increase of 23.4% [2]. Market Position and Policy Impact - The company has increased its market share in large tractors, with sales reaching 34,800 units in 2024, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, and the proportion of large tractors sold rose from 42.8% in 2023 to 46.8% in 2024 [3]. - The new national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy has widened the subsidy gap between advanced tractors and ordinary tractors, which is expected to drive product upgrades in the agricultural machinery industry and enhance the profitability of leading companies [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.03 billion RMB in 2025, 1.16 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 12.2%, and 11.6% respectively [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 16, 14, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].