中信证券（600030）24年报业绩点评：自营业务驱动业绩增长彰显龙头韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, showcasing resilience with adjusted revenues of 161 billion and 579 billion yuan for the quarter and the year, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 35.5% and 5.2% [1]. - The growth in revenue was driven by self-operated, asset management, and brokerage businesses, with Q4 2024 brokerage revenue increasing by 48.9% year-on-year [2]. - The capital market sentiment has improved, contributing to a year-on-year increase in self-operated business revenue for the full year [3]. - Regulatory policies have tightened, leading to pressure on investment banking and credit businesses, with significant declines in underwriting volumes [4]. - The company anticipates continued growth in market activity due to supportive policies, projecting net profit growth of 24.5% for 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved adjusted revenues of 161 billion yuan, with a net profit of 49 billion yuan, reflecting a 48.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - For the full year, the company reported revenues of 579 billion yuan and a net profit of 217 billion yuan, marking a 10.1% increase year-on-year [1]. Brokerage and Asset Management - Brokerage revenue for Q4 2024 was 35.6 billion yuan, up 48.9% year-on-year, driven by increased market trading activity [2]. - Asset management revenue reached 30.3 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in non-monetary public fund management [2]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business generated revenues of 46.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a full-year total of 263.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company's financial asset scale reached 861.8 billion yuan, with an investment return rate of 3.06% [3]. Investment Banking and Credit Business - Investment banking revenue for Q4 2024 was 13.4 billion yuan, but the full-year revenue declined by 33.9% to 41.6 billion yuan due to stricter regulatory policies [4]. - Credit business revenue fell sharply, with Q4 2024 revenue at 1.6 billion yuan, down 78.1% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued market activity growth supported by favorable policies, with revised net profit forecasts of 270 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 24.5% year-on-year increase [5].