Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, a 3% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 2.60 billion USD, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth, and adjusted net profit was 115 million USD, up 11% year-over-year [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut system sales grew by 5% and 3% respectively, with same-store sales declining by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - KFC's order volume increased by 3%, while average transaction value decreased by 4%; Pizza Hut's order volume rose by 9%, with a 10% drop in average transaction value [2][11]. - The total number of restaurants reached 16,395 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, contributing to 65% of sales [4][11]. - Digital orders accounted for 90% of restaurant income, totaling 9.60 billion USD for the year, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The report highlights improved cost control measures, with raw materials accounting for 31.9% of income (down 0.5 percentage points), staff costs at 28.2% (down 0.8 percentage points), and rent and other expenses at 27.6% (down 0.3 percentage points) [4][11]. - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].
百胜中国：公司季报点评：4Q24业绩平稳增长，同店降幅收窄-20250328