美银 - 中国 A 股 WW 指标月报：WW 指标处于中性区域

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "neutral" investment rating for the China A-share market as of March 2025, with the W&W Indicator averaging at 50 and the daily reading at 33, suggesting a bullish sentiment [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while the overall sentiment is neutral, there are strong fund flows and very loose liquidity conditions. However, high leverage and negative earnings revisions present cautionary signals for the near-term outlook [1][3][17]. - The report maintains a structurally bullish view on the China market for the next 3-5 years, despite caution regarding the HK/ADR markets following a recent rally [1]. Summary by Categories Leverage - Leverage is reported at 71%, which is considered high. Margin trading as a percentage of A-share daily turnover is at 9.5%, exceeding the long-term average of 8.9% [2][19]. Valuation - The valuation is assessed at 54%, categorized as neutral. The current P/E ratio stands at 19.1x, which is below the long-term average of 21.2x [2][24]. Positioning - Positioning is very high at 89%, with 88.4% of stock mutual funds currently invested, surpassing the long-term average of 84.6% [2][31]. Liquidity - Liquidity is described as very loose, with the 10-year government bond yield rebounding to 1.83% in March 2025 from a record low of 1.6% in January 2025 [3][35]. Fund Flow - Fund flow is strong, with turnover/market cap at 176% in March 2025, significantly above the long-term average of 107% since 2007 [3][27]. Earnings - Earnings revisions are very negative, with the CSI 300 earnings downgrade improving from -12% YoY in September 2024 to -4.8% YoY in March 2025, although still significantly negative [3][40][43].