NOVEL(002014) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-28 02:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 468 million yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year [6] - The revenue from color printing stabilized, while the film and export segments experienced significant growth [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit, with forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upwards due to improved competitive positioning and market share [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3.379 billion yuan - 2024: 3.525 billion yuan - 2025E: 3.764 billion yuan - 2026E: 4.131 billion yuan - 2027E: 4.573 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 2.3% for 2023, 4.3% for 2024, 6.8% for 2025, 9.8% for 2026, and 10.7% for 2027 [5][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 408 million yuan - 2024: 468 million yuan - 2025: 508 million yuan - 2026: 546 million yuan - 2027: 596 million yuan - The projected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 12.5% for 2023, 14.6% for 2024, 8.5% for 2025, 7.6% for 2026, and 9.1% for 2027 [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from color printing was 2.477 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while the film business achieved a revenue of 724 million yuan, a growth of 37.9% year-on-year [6] - The international market revenue reached 452 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.8% increase year-on-year [6] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 23.8%, with a notable recovery in Q4 2024 gross margin at 25.9% [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 2024 net profit margin was 16.5%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [6]