国联民生（601456）：投资波动拖累，并购整合推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained for both A and H shares [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.683 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 9.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million RMB, down 40.80% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 678 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 51% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26% [1][2]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and expects to gradually promote integration and synergy in the future [1][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Business Performance - The core revenue source is the investment business, which generated 980 million RMB in 2024, accounting for 36% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21% [2]. - In Q1, the investment business faced significant challenges, resulting in a revenue of -150 million RMB. Q2 and Q3 showed relative stability with revenues of 525 million and 554 million RMB respectively. Q4 revenue dropped to 46 million RMB, down 57% year-on-year and 92% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Brokerage and Asset Management - The brokerage business demonstrated strong resilience, with net income of 720 million RMB for the year, up 39% year-on-year, driven by improved market trading activity. The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached 1.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 23% year-on-year [3]. - The asset management business also performed well, with net income of 660 million RMB, up 49% year-on-year. By year-end, the asset under management (AUM) for the parent company reached 142.5 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year [3]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector continued to contract in 2024, with the A-share market completing 272 equity financing projects, raising 312.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 70% year-on-year. The company's IPO underwriting scale significantly declined to only 17 million RMB for the year, while refinancing increased by 66% to 2.6 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities has been completed, but the 2024 report has not yet been consolidated into profit forecasts. The company has adjusted its assumptions for trading volume and margin financing, leading to revised EPS estimates of 0.21, 0.24, and 0.29 RMB for 2025-2027 [5][21]. - The target price is set at 12.08 RMB for A shares and 4.36 HKD for H shares, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.8 for A shares and 0.6 for H shares [5][8].