BYD(01211) 浦银国际·2025-03-28 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [6] Core Views - BYD is expected to significantly increase its smart driving penetration rate, driving substantial growth in both sales and profits for new energy vehicles [2][6] - The target price for BYD shares is set at HKD 481.0, representing a potential upside of 18% for the Hong Kong stock and CNY 469.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 21% [4][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 602,315 million in 2023 to RMB 966,125 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% [3][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30,041 million in 2023 to RMB 50,211 million in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 25% [3][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 20.2% in 2023 to 18.7% in 2025 [3][9] Sales and Market Performance - BYD's vehicle sales are anticipated to reach 5.5 million units in 2025, with overseas sales expected to nearly double [6] - The sales of high-end brands such as Tengshi, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang are projected to grow significantly [6] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 29.0x for new energy vehicles, 21.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to target prices of HKD 481.0 and CNY 469.0 [10]