SD-GOLD(600547) 华泰证券·2025-03-28 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.81 and HKD 20.65, maintaining the "Buy" rating [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 82.518 billion (up 39.21% year-on-year) and net profit of RMB 2.952 billion (up 26.80% year-on-year) [1][5]. - The company is expected to continue its production growth due to ongoing projects and resource integration, with gold production expected to rise significantly in the coming years [3][4]. - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by factors such as U.S. tariff policy changes and global economic uncertainties, which may enhance investment demand for gold [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 82.518 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.21%, and a net profit of RMB 2.952 billion, up 26.80% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company's gold production in 2024 was 46.17 tons, an increase of 10.51% year-on-year, attributed to improved production capabilities and higher ore grades [2]. Production Outlook - Future production growth is anticipated from several projects, including the Kartino project, which is expected to process 9.5 million tons of ore annually, yielding approximately 8.4 tons of gold [3]. - The company has significantly increased its resource reserves, with gold metal reserves reaching 2,058.46 tons by the end of 2024, up from 1,282.96 tons in 2023 [2]. Market Conditions - The gold market is expected to experience upward pressure on prices due to factors such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, with a favorable supply-demand balance anticipated [4]. - The initiation of insurance capital investment in gold in China may provide additional support for gold demand [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.17, with expected growth rates of 11.4% and 17.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][7]. - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 3.6 times for 2025, with a target price reflecting a premium based on recent market performance [5][12].