TLC(002466) 民生证券·2025-03-28 10:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Cautious Recommendation" due to high raw material costs and expected continued declines in lithium prices [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 13.06 billion yuan, down 67.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.90 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][5]. - Lithium salt sales increased significantly, but high-priced ore inventory negatively impacted performance. The company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate in 2024, with a sales volume of 1.03 million tons, reflecting an 81.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan per ton, down 64.6% year-on-year, contributing to the company's financial struggles [2]. - Investment income from SQM dropped significantly, resulting in a loss of 840 million yuan, a decrease of 39.5 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to falling lithium prices and tax litigation in Chile [3]. - The company recorded an increase in asset impairment, totaling 2.11 billion yuan in 2024, with significant provisions for inventory and construction projects due to high costs and declining lithium prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -67.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.90 billion yuan, reflecting a -208.3% change [5][8]. - The company expects a gradual recovery in net profit from 2025 to 2027, projecting net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 2.14 billion yuan, and 2.90 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. Production and Sales - The lithium salt production reached 71,000 tons in 2024, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, while sales volume increased by 81.5% to 103,000 tons [2]. - The company’s lithium concentrate inventory stood at 299,000 tons at the end of 2024, down 26.9% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expenses - Financial expenses rose to 900 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to exchange losses from currency depreciation [4]. - The company recorded asset impairments of 2.11 billion yuan, with significant provisions for inventory and construction projects due to high costs [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance production capacity through ongoing projects, including the expansion of its chemical-grade lithium hydroxide plant, expected to commence operations in October 2025 [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 49, 24, and 18 respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [5][8].