Air China(601111) 中邮证券·2025-03-28 11:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company continues to narrow its losses and is awaiting a recovery in passenger transport [4] - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [4] - The passenger transport business shows signs of recovery, with a 21.7% increase in capacity and a 32.8% increase in passenger turnover, totaling 155 million passengers, a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [5] - Cargo performance remains strong, with cargo revenue reaching 7.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0% [5] - The company expects continued growth in passenger transport in 2025, with projected revenues of 173.5 billion yuan, 185.2 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 7.59 yuan - Total shares: 1.7448 billion, circulating shares: 1.1638 billion - Total market value: 132.4 billion yuan, circulating market value: 88.3 billion yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 88.2% [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of -240 million yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with a net profit of -1.6 billion yuan [4] - The company’s oil costs were 53.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while non-oil costs reached 104.47 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.61 billion yuan, 7.89 billion yuan, and 10.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with significant growth rates of 118.4% and 34.9% in subsequent years [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.64 yuan respectively [9]