云铝股份（000807）：续两个季度满产，现金流强劲

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][24] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a 12% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, with revenue projected at 54.45 billion yuan, representing a 27.6% increase [1][6] - The company has significantly reduced its financial burden, with cash flow remaining strong, and is benefiting from a high profitability elasticity to aluminum prices [2][20] - The company is positioned as a leading green low-carbon aluminum supplier in China, leveraging its abundant green electricity resources [20] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a 27.6% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [4][6] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to reach 6.95 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase [2][6] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 1.42 billion yuan in 2024, which accounts for 32.2% of the net profit [1][6] Production and Capacity - The company has achieved a historical high in primary aluminum production, with an output of 2.94 million tons in 2024, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [1][6] - The electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 3.05 million tons, with production consistently reaching over 790,000 tons in the latter half of 2024 [1][6] Financial Metrics and Projections - The company’s financial metrics indicate a reduction in debt, with interest-bearing debt decreasing to 2.9 billion yuan by the end of 2024, down 1.5 billion yuan from 2023 [2][18] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 6.87 billion yuan, 7.71 billion yuan, and 7.80 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55.8%, 12.2%, and 1.1% [3][21]