Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 民生证券·2025-03-30 02:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 17.37 yuan [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.412 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [9]. - The electrolytic aluminum production significantly increased in 2024, with a total output of 2.9383 million tons, up by 538,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to reduced production restrictions [18]. - The report highlights the long-term value of green aluminum under the dual carbon goals, with the company positioned to benefit from carbon trading initiatives [43][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company released its 2024 annual report, showing a net profit of 4.412 billion yuan, with a quarterly net profit of 592 million yuan in Q4 2024, down 59.21% year-on-year [9][11]. 2. 2024 Performance - The company's revenue from electrolytic aluminum reached 30.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.43%, contributing 56.89% to total revenue [16]. - The average aluminum price in 2024 was 19,922 yuan per ton, up by 1,222 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the average alumina price was 4,034 yuan per ton, up by 1,134 yuan per ton [18]. 3. Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.41 million tons of alumina in 2025, indicating strong production capacity and operational efficiency [40]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green aluminum value to increase as carbon trading becomes more prevalent in the industry [43]. 4. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.08 billion yuan, 9.07 billion yuan, and 9.98 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [49]. - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 23.28% in 2024, down by 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability [24][26].