Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 民生证券·2025-03-30 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][49]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.412 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.52%. However, the net profit for Q4 2024 saw a significant decline of 59.21% year-on-year [1][9]. - The production of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 increased significantly, with a total output of 2.9383 million tons, up by 538,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to reduced production restrictions [1][18]. - The report highlights the long-term value of green aluminum, especially under the dual carbon goals, with the company positioned to benefit from carbon trading initiatives [3][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, with a notable increase in electrolytic aluminum revenue by 43.43% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall performance [16]. - The gross profit from electrolytic aluminum was 4.101 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.41% [16]. 2. Q4 2024 Performance - The company’s Q4 2024 net profit was 0.592 billion yuan, showing a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2][29]. - The production figures for Q4 2024 included 790,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, slightly down from the previous quarter, while alumina production was 336,000 tons [30]. 3. Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.41 million tons of alumina in 2025, indicating a robust production strategy [3][40]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green aluminum, particularly as carbon trading becomes more prevalent, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [3][43]. 4. Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 8.08 billion yuan in 2025, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [49]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 7 for 2025, indicating favorable valuation metrics for investors [49].