ICBC(601398) 华泰证券·2025-03-30 04:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintaining the previous rating [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a slight increase in net profit of 0.51% year-on-year for 2024, while operating revenue is projected to decline by 2.52% [1]. - The company maintains a stable operational performance and solid market position, with a dividend payout ratio of 31.3% for 2024, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.308 RMB [1][5]. - The target price for A/H shares is set at 8.77 RMB and 7.06 HKD, reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80 for A shares and 0.60 for H shares [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company's total assets, loans, and deposits are expected to grow by 9.2%, 8.8%, and 3.9% respectively, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is projected at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point from previous quarters [2]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is forecasted to decline by 1.9% year-on-year for 2024, with a notable decrease in fee and commission income by 8.3% [3]. - Other non-interest income is expected to increase by 9.2% year-on-year, driven by growth in asset custody and agency payment services [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to remain stable at 1.34% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 215% [4]. - The company’s retail loan quality shows some fluctuations, while corporate loan quality is improving [4]. Capital Adequacy and Valuation - The capital adequacy ratio and core tier one capital ratio are expected to be 19.39% and 14.10% respectively by the end of 2024 [3][4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.04 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.60 [7][26].