GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 华泰证券·2025-03-30 06:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.62 and RMB 37.01, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at RMB 18.906 billion (down 42.66% year-on-year) and a net loss of RMB 2.074 billion (down 141.93% year-on-year). The performance aligns with the company's profit warning [1][2]. - Despite the downturn, the company is expanding its upstream resources and midstream refining capacity, positioning itself for potential recovery when industry conditions improve [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 49.81 billion (down 31.67% year-on-year, up 14.87% quarter-on-quarter) and a net loss of RMB 14.34 billion (down 34.86% year-on-year, down 1294.81% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - The lithium price has significantly decreased, with a reported 65% year-on-year drop in lithium carbonate prices, impacting profitability despite increased sales volume [2]. Production Expansion - The company is ramping up production at various projects, including the Cauchari-Olaroz project, which reached approximately 85% of its nominal design capacity in Q4 2024, and the Mariana lithium salt lake project, which commenced production in February 2025 [3]. - The Goulamina spodumene project is also progressing, with an initial capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate expected to be gradually released in 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the unexpected decline in lithium prices, the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected EPS of RMB 0.32, RMB 0.90, and RMB 1.71 for the respective years [4][6]. - The company is assigned a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.77 for 2025, with a book value per share (BPS) of RMB 20.88, reflecting a premium of 78% over the average A/H share price in the last three months [4].