广发证券：投资弹性驱动，经纪投行复苏-20250330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at HKD 15.46 for H shares and RMB 22.42 for A shares [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 27.199 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.637 billion, up 38.11% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [1]. - Investment income saw a significant year-over-year growth of 117%, reaching RMB 7.754 billion, marking the highest level since 2018, and accounting for 29% of total revenue [2]. - The company completed 8 A-share equity financing projects with a total underwriting amount of RMB 8.666 billion, and bond underwriting reached RMB 296.3 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year [3]. - Asset management income decreased by 11% year-over-year to RMB 6.885 billion, while net interest income fell by 25% to RMB 2.348 billion due to competitive pressures in margin financing [4]. - The report projects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 1.47, RMB 1.64, and RMB 1.80 respectively, with a BPS of RMB 20.38 for 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 27.199 billion for 2024, with a net profit of RMB 9.637 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 16.74% and 38.11% respectively [1][7]. - Investment income reached RMB 7.754 billion, a 117% increase from the previous year, contributing 29% to total revenue [2]. Investment Banking and Brokerage - The company completed 8 A-share equity financing projects with a total underwriting amount of RMB 8.666 billion, and bond underwriting reached RMB 296.3 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year [3]. - Brokerage income increased by 14% year-over-year to RMB 6.650 billion, with a significant growth in the scale of financial products sold [3]. Asset Management and Interest Income - Asset management income decreased by 11% year-over-year to RMB 6.885 billion, while net interest income fell by 25% to RMB 2.348 billion due to competitive pressures in margin financing [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 1.47, RMB 1.64, and RMB 1.80 respectively, with a BPS of RMB 20.38 for 2025 [5][20].