StarPower(603290) 国元证券·2025-03-30 08:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Accumulate" rating, projecting a target price of 107 CNY per share for 2025, with an upside target of 125 CNY per share [4][10][14]. Core Insights - The IGBT market is showing signs of marginal improvement, driven primarily by the demand from the electric vehicle sector. The IGBT shipment volume is expected to return to positive growth by Q2 2024, indicating the end of the industry downturn. The current IGBT prices are at a relative bottom, which is beneficial for the company's cost structure [1][10][23]. - The SiC (Silicon Carbide) market is experiencing a significant reduction in costs, with the production capacity of SiC substrates in China expected to triple by mid-2024 compared to 2022. The price of SiC substrates has decreased by approximately 30% in 2024, and further declines are anticipated in 2025, which will enhance the demand for SiC products in high-end vehicle platforms [2][12][28]. - The company's fundraising projects are progressing well, transitioning to a Fabless + IDM model. The company raised 3.5 billion CNY in 2021 to enhance its production capacity, with expectations of producing 300,000 units of high-voltage power chips and 60,000 units of SiC chips annually [3][13][40]. Summary by Sections Overall View - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in IGBT prices and shipment volumes, alongside the growth in the electric vehicle market, which will enhance its market share and profitability [10][14]. Current Price and Valuation Assessment - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2024 and 2025 to be 626 million CNY and 848 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34 and 25 [4][5][56]. Core Logic Changes - The IGBT market is anticipated to recover, with improved shipment volumes and a stabilization of prices. The demand from the automotive electronics sector, particularly for electric vehicles, is expected to drive this recovery [10][23][25]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2005, focuses on the design, production, and sales of power semiconductor chips and modules, primarily IGBT modules, which account for over 90% of its revenue [42][44]. Performance Breakdown and Valuation - The company's IGBT business is projected to generate revenues of 32.01 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline expected, followed by a recovery in subsequent years. The SiC business is also expected to grow significantly, contributing to the overall revenue increase [54][55][56].