美银：《中国观察》-3 月中国宏观考察要点总结，为应对更高关税做好准备

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The consensus among experts indicates that additional US tariff hikes on Chinese products are likely, with China prepared to respond with countermeasures, although there is openness for bilateral dialogue [2] - Experts welcome the expansion of the fiscal budget deficit and a larger fiscal package, anticipating improvements in fiscal expenditure growth by 2025, but express concerns over weak corporate earnings and household income [3] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) faces pressure to reduce effective interest rates, but near-term rate cuts are constrained by the need to maintain exchange rate stability [4] - Retail sales growth has shown improvement, leading to a more stabilized consumption outlook, though challenges remain due to the property market and income expectations [5] - The property market shows signs of recovery in land transactions, but experts caution against interpreting this as a full rebound, with price declines still present [8] Summary by Sections Trade - Experts agree on the likelihood of further US tariff increases and China's readiness to counteract, while also expressing a willingness for dialogue [2] Fiscal Policy - Expansion of the fiscal budget deficit is welcomed, with expectations for improved fiscal expenditure growth in 2025, but concerns remain regarding tax revenue and local fiscal shortfalls [3] Monetary Policy - The PBoC is under pressure to lower interest rates, but constraints exist due to the need for exchange rate stability and maintaining banks' net interest margins [4] Consumption - Retail sales growth has stabilized, but further fiscal support may be needed if growth continues to ease later in the year [5] Property Market - Recovery signs in land transactions are noted, but overall price stabilization remains elusive, with significant regional variations in sales trends [8][9]