深信服（300454）：合同负债增长超20%，AICP和一朵云迎智算增长动能

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][16] Core Views - The company is expected to face a slight decline in revenue in 2024, with projected revenue of 7.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.86% compared to 2023. However, net profit is expected to remain stable at 197 million yuan, down only 0.49% [7][3] - The company has shown resilience in its enterprise customer segment, with revenue from enterprise clients reaching 3.49 billion yuan, an increase of 1.82%. The cloud business has also demonstrated steady growth, with revenue of 3.38 billion yuan, up 9.51% [2][3] - The company has launched upgraded versions of its security models, which are expected to drive growth in its AICP and cloud services, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 75.20 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.86%. The net profit is expected to be 1.97 billion yuan, down 0.49%, while the non-recurring net profit is forecasted at 0.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.45% [7][3] - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 28.86 billion yuan, an increase of 1.13%, and a net profit of 7.77 billion yuan, up 4.46% [7][3] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 61.47%, a decrease of 3.66 percentage points from 2023, primarily due to increased competition and a higher proportion of cloud computing business [11][3] Business Segments - Revenue from enterprise customers is 34.87 billion yuan, up 1.82%, while revenue from government and public institutions is 32.97 billion yuan, down 3.85%. Revenue from financial and other clients is 7.36 billion yuan, down 8.99% [2][3] - The security business revenue is 36.29 billion yuan, down 6.75%, while the cloud business revenue is 33.84 billion yuan, up 9.51% [2][3] Future Outlook - The company maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 83.21 billion yuan, 93.46 billion yuan, and 107.40 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 10.7%, 12.3%, and 14.9% respectively [3][16] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.75 billion yuan, 7.64 billion yuan, and 10.09 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [3][16]