2025年3月PMI数据点评：3月官方制造业PMI指数继续回升，一季度宏观经济延续偏强走势

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from February, indicating continued expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The new orders index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 51.8%, highlighting domestic demand as a key driver for the PMI rise[2] - The new export orders index unexpectedly rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.0%, above the historical average of 48.1% over the past decade, suggesting resilience in external demand[2] Sector Performance - The small enterprises PMI rebounded significantly by 3.3 percentage points to 49.6%, the highest level in nearly 11 months, reflecting the effectiveness of recent demand-boosting policies[3] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 52.0% and 52.3%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicles and equipment upgrades[3] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, supported by policies promoting consumption upgrades[3] Price Indices and Economic Outlook - The main raw materials purchase price index fell by 1 percentage point to 49.8%, influenced by declining international prices for crude oil and iron ore[4] - The producer price index (PPI) is expected to maintain a year-on-year decline of around -2.2%, primarily due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand[4] - The overall manufacturing PMI reflects seasonal recovery and the impact of growth-stabilizing policies, with Q1 GDP growth projected between 5.0% and 5.2%[5]