丁二烯橡胶：乍暖还寒春意迟，筑底蓄势待新机

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Game for rebounds; Medium - and long - term: Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, synthetic rubber prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern with potential for periodic rebounds. In the long term, cost support will gradually weaken, and the price center of synthetic rubber may further decline [105]. - Investors can focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU, but should pay attention to the impact of raw material price fluctuations and natural rubber supply changes [106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, the BR futures price experienced a complex trend of "rapid rebound - oscillatory correction - range consolidation". Market sentiment fluctuated between cost support and weak demand. The price rose from 12,700 yuan/ton to over 15,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and then fell back to the range of 13,400 - 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Cost Side 3.2.1 Crude Oil - In Q1 2025, crude oil prices first rose and then declined. Supply concerns eased due to increased US shale oil production, OPEC+ planned to resume production, and Russia's export recovery. Weak global economic data also dampened demand expectations. By early March, WTI dropped to $65.22/barrel and Brent to $68.33/barrel [16]. 3.2.2 Butadiene - The domestic butadiene market in Q1 2025 showed a pattern of "rising first, then falling, and then recovering". In January, prices were supported by supply control and high external prices. In February, prices dropped due to slow demand recovery and plant restarts. In March, the market entered a re - balancing phase. As of March 21, production reached 123.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.74%. The import volume also increased significantly. In the second quarter, the supply may tighten due to plant maintenance [23][28][30]. 3.3 Butadiene Rubber 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In Q1 2025, as of March 21, butadiene rubber production was 324,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.42%. However, production profit was in deficit, and the operating rate fluctuated. In the second quarter, the operating rate is expected to decline further. In terms of imports and exports, from January to February 2025, the import volume of general and special synthetic rubber increased, with butadiene rubber imports rising by 10.27% and exports by 27.23%. The inventory of butadiene rubber decreased after the holiday, but the pace was slow due to weak downstream demand [47][48][66]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - Futures - Spot Spread and Profit Pricing Model: The price of butadiene rubber is mainly guided by the butadiene price, but the spread fluctuates greatly. Currently, the theoretical price of butadiene rubber is in the range of 13,522 - 13,826 yuan/ton, and the BR futures price is expected to oscillate in the range of [13,400, 14,100] [84]. - Inter - Commodity Spread: The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber fluctuates greatly. In Q1 2025, the spread first narrowed and then widened. Currently, the spread is relatively large, and there is a logical basis for it to narrow in the medium - and long - term [100]. 3.4 Logic Summary and Price Trend Outlook - Short - term: Synthetic rubber prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern with potential for periodic rebounds. The price may test the resistance level of 14,000 yuan/ton but faces callback risks after the rebound [105]. - Medium - and long - term: Cost support will gradually weaken, and the price center of synthetic rubber may further decline. The supply - demand contradiction will intensify, and the industry profit may be under long - term pressure [105].