LVMH集团-欧洲公司研究-2025年第一季度销售预测及预估微调-250324

Investment Rating - The investment rating for LVMH is Neutral with a price target of €650.00 by December 2026 [2][17]. Core Insights - LVMH is a leader in the global Luxury Fashion & Leather Goods market, with notable brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior. However, there are signs of normalization in consumer demand and momentum, particularly in the Fashion & Leather Goods segment, which experienced its worst performance in Q3 2024 (excluding COVID) [9][17]. - The report indicates that the leather goods category may be experiencing fatigue after years of exceptional demand, suggesting that even a sector leader like LVMH may not be immune to broader market trends [9][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecasts - Q1 2025 sales are expected to show a 1% increase (ex-FX) compared to Q4 2024, with Fashion & Leather Goods sales projected to decline by 1% [1][7]. - The report anticipates a 4% decline in Wines & Spirits sales (ex-FX) for Q1 2025, with cognac sales expected to drop by 7% [7][13]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been revised down from €88,850 million to €87,260 million, reflecting a 2% decrease. FY26 estimates have also been adjusted down from €93,487 million to €91,978 million [3][16]. - Adjusted EPS for FY25 is now forecasted at €26.34, down from €26.76, while FY26 is revised to €29.71 from €29.98 [3][16]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a year-over-year revenue growth of -1.7% for FY24, with a projected recovery to 3.0% in FY25 and 5.4% in FY26 [21]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve slightly from 32.3% in FY24 to 32.8% in FY25 [21]. Valuation Methodology - The price target of €650.00 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, utilizing a '26e EV/EBIT multiple for Wines & Spirits in line with sector averages and a 30% premium for Louis Vuitton [10][18].