CHINA RES GAS(01193) 华源证券·2025-03-31 08:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a warm winter and impacts from the real estate sector, but the dividend logic is gradually being realized [5] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of HKD 4.09 billion, a decrease of 21.7% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for 2024, with the cash dividend amounting to 52.71% of the net profit [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 101.27 billion - 2024: HKD 102.68 billion - 2025E: HKD 105.54 billion - 2026E: HKD 108.01 billion - 2027E: HKD 110.57 billion - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: HKD 5.22 billion - 2024: HKD 4.09 billion - 2025E: HKD 4.72 billion - 2026E: HKD 5.51 billion - 2027E: HKD 6.19 billion - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 2.04, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 [6][8] Operational Insights - Retail gas sales volume for 2024 is expected to reach 39.91 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with residential, industrial, and commercial sales volumes growing by 6.3%, 1.5%, and 3.8% respectively [7] - The company’s connection profit continues to shrink, with a reduction in new residential connections by 620,000 to 2.693 million, leading to a decline in connection business profits [7] - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at HKD 4.42 billion, a decrease of HKD 3.47 billion year-on-year, contributing to an improvement in free cash flow [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance as the real estate market stabilizes, with a focus on optimizing its gas sales business and improving profitability [7] - The long-term downward trend in gas prices is anticipated to enhance cost efficiency, with the company signing a 15-year LNG supply agreement starting in 2027 [7]