CITIC Steel(000708) 国信证券·2025-03-31 09:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19][22] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its product structure to maintain stable profitability despite a projected decline in net profit by 10% year-on-year for 2024. Revenue is expected to be 109.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous year [1][3][19] - The company has demonstrated resilience against industry cyclical fluctuations, maintaining strong cash flow while facing challenges such as weak downstream demand and high raw material costs. It is also pursuing an international strategy focused on a "resource + main business + distribution" model [3][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.56 billion yuan to shareholders, which represents 49.95% of the projected net profit for 2024. This continues a trend of high dividend payouts over the past seven years [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 109.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, with a slight increase in operating cash flow to 10.74 billion yuan [1][4][20] - The sales volume of steel products is projected to remain flat at 18.89 million tons, with exports expected to decrease by 180,000 tons [1][7] - The company’s subsidiaries show varied performance, with notable growth in bearing steel sales by 6% and record sales in energy steel [2][8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 110.6 billion yuan, 112.0 billion yuan, and 123.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profit expected to grow to 5.72 billion yuan, 6.12 billion yuan, and 6.60 billion yuan [3][19][20] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.13 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.31 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.0, 10.3, and 9.5 [3][19][20]