GAC GROUP(601238) 华创证券·2025-03-31 10:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Recommended" [2][8][18] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 107.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.82 billion yuan, down 81% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to face significant pressure in both its independent and joint ventures in 2024, but there are expectations for operational improvements in 2025 [2][8] - The target price for the company's A-shares is set at 9.9 yuan and for H-shares at 3.5 HKD, based on adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 [2][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 107.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.9% for 2025, followed by positive growth rates of 8.4%, 13.0%, and 11.4% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from -0.82 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.19 billion yuan in 2025, with further increases to 2.32 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.14 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.08 yuan in 2024 to 0.31 yuan in 2027 [4][9] Operational Insights - The company plans to launch over 20 new models in 2025, including 7 from its independent brand, aiming for total production and sales exceeding 1 million units [2][8] - The company is collaborating with Huawei, having invested 1.5 billion yuan to establish a new automotive venture focused on luxury smart electric vehicles [2][8] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of March 28, 2025, is 8.49 yuan, with a historical high of 10.69 yuan and a low of 7.13 yuan within the past 12 months [4][5]