BTG Hotels(600258) 中信建投·2025-03-31 10:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's hotel operations in Q4 generated revenue of 1.165 billion, down 5.0%, while hotel management revenue increased by 8.4% to 567 million. Scenic area revenue was 130 million, down 2.2%. The total hotel profit for Q4 was 90 million, a decrease of 15.8%, while scenic area profit increased by 2.8% to 41.58 million. The same-store RevPAR for Q4 decreased by 2%, which is more stable compared to competitors [1][2][3]. - The company plans to accelerate its store openings in 2024, with a target of 1,500 new stores, and the proportion of standard stores in new openings is increasing. By the end of the year, the total number of hotels reached 7,002 [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 77.51 billion, a decrease of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.06 billion, an increase of 1.41%. In Q4, revenue was 18.62 billion, down 1.05%, and net profit was 830 million, down 24.71% [2][13]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.36 per share, totaling 4.02 billion, which accounts for 49.85% of the net profit [2]. Business Segments - In Q4, hotel revenue was 17.32 billion, down 1.0%, with hotel operations at 11.65 billion (-5.0%) and hotel management at 5.67 billion (+8.4%). The hotel profit for Q4 was 90 million, down 15.8%. The sales expense ratio for the hotel segment in H2 2024 was 7.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to OTA commissions increasing by 22% [3][10]. Operational Metrics - In Q4, the overall occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR decreased by 1.5 percentage points, 0.7%, and 3.0%, respectively. Excluding light management hotels, the declines were 0.3 percentage points, 0.7%, and 1.2%. The economic and mid-range RevPARs were down 1.0% and 4.2%, respectively [4][9]. - The company opened 401 new hotels in Q4 and closed 147, resulting in a net increase of 254 hotels. The total number of hotels reached 7,002 by year-end, with plans to open 1,500 new hotels in 2025 [10]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.18 billion, 10.81 billion, and 12.24 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.5X, 14.0X, and 12.4X [11][13].