Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 中信建投·2025-03-31 13:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][9]. Core Views - The beer industry faced challenges in the first three quarters of 2024 due to weak dining consumption and weather factors, but the company is expected to recover in 2025 under new management [1][9]. - The company announced a dividend payout ratio increase of 5 percentage points to 69%, indicating enhanced dividend attributes and potential for further increases in the future [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.35 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year [2][11]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 3.18 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 640 million yuan, slightly worsening [2][11]. Sales and Pricing - In 2024, the company's total sales volume was 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.9% year-on-year, with the Qingdao brand accounting for 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% [3][9]. - The average price per ton of beer increased by 0.4% to 4,189 yuan, with Q4 showing a sales volume increase of 5.2% and a price increase of 2.2% to 4,221 yuan per ton [3][4]. Cost and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1%, while Q4 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 26.2% due to a slight increase in cost per ton [4][9]. - The company's cost per ton in Q4 was 3,114 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, attributed to structural upgrades and seasonal production fluctuations [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 33.12 billion yuan, 33.80 billion yuan, and 34.17 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 4.785 billion yuan, 5.232 billion yuan, and 5.715 billion yuan respectively [11][9].