Zhonggu Logistics(603565) 浙商证券·2025-03-31 14:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of 11.26 billion yuan, down 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.84 billion yuan, up 6.9% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.81 billion yuan, down 10.6%, and a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 38.0%, with a non-recurring net profit of 490 million yuan, up 79% [1] - The average PDCI freight rate for 2024 was 1104 points, down 11.8%, while Q4 saw an average of 1287 points, up 8.7% year-on-year and up 34.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company reported a significant decrease in operating costs in Q4 2024, amounting to 2.23 billion yuan, down 16.8%, leading to a gross margin of 20.7%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reaching 90.4% in 2024, with a total dividend of 1.659 billion yuan, reflecting its strong cash flow position [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.26 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.84 billion yuan, with projections for 2025-2027 net profits of 2.01 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.93 [4] Market Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to recover moderately, with infrastructure investments driving growth in key cargo categories [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply in domestic trade and the sustained demand in foreign trade, particularly due to the favorable conditions following the Red Sea incident [2] Dividend Policy - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a cumulative dividend of 7.22 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, representing 74% of the net profit during this period [8] - The year-end cash and cash equivalents totaled 12.3 billion yuan, supporting the company's ability to maintain high dividend payouts [8]