沛嘉医疗-B：TAVR/神介齐发力，24年净亏损缩窄-20250401

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.88 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 615 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.5%, with a significant reduction in net loss to 228 million RMB [1]. - The TAVR segment is projected to see a revenue increase of 40% year-on-year in 2024, driven by an increase in market share and product iterations [2]. - The neurointervention segment is also expected to grow by 39% year-on-year in 2024, benefiting from new product launches and import substitution opportunities [3]. - Long-term growth is anticipated from the TAVR pipeline, with new products expected to launch from late 2025 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 818 million RMB, 1.066 billion RMB, and 1.540 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a net loss of 83 million RMB in 2025 turning to a profit of 10 million RMB in 2026 [5][20]. Summary by Sections TAVR Segment - The TAVR segment is expected to generate 260 million RMB in revenue in 2024, with a 40% year-on-year growth, and a market share increase to 25% [2]. - The company plans to expand its market presence by increasing hospital partnerships and launching new products [2]. Neurointervention Segment - The neurointervention segment is projected to achieve 356 million RMB in revenue in 2024, with a 39% year-on-year growth, driven by new product launches and import substitution [3]. - The segment is expected to benefit from regional procurement policies and the introduction of new products [3]. TMV/TTV Pipeline - The TMV/TTV pipeline is progressing well, with potential sales exceeding 2 billion RMB by 2033, supported by ongoing clinical trials and product registrations [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 818 million RMB in 2025, with a net loss of 83 million RMB, improving to a profit of 10 million RMB in 2026 [5][20]. - A DCF valuation method estimates the target price at 6.88 HKD, reflecting the long-term growth potential of the company's pipeline [5][13].