CSPC PHARMA-石药集团：Resilient BD momentum offsets sales pressure-20250401

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - CSPC's total revenue is projected to decline by 7.8% YoY to RMB29.0 billion in FY24, primarily due to significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales [7]. - The company anticipates a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, driven by new product launches and business development (BD) initiatives [7]. - CSPC has made substantial progress in out-licensing innovative assets, aiming to secure 3-4 out-licensing deals annually to generate recurring revenue [7]. - The target price for CSPC is revised to HK $5.71 from HK$ 5.97, reflecting a 15.5% upside from the current price of HK $4.94 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 is reported at RMB31,450 million, with a slight YoY growth of 1.7%, while FY24 revenue is expected to drop to RMB29,009 million [2][12]. - Net profit for FY23 is RMB6,072.7 million, showing a decline of 2.6% YoY, with further expected declines in FY24 to RMB4,338.8 million [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 is reported at RMB0.49, with projections of RMB0.37 for FY24 [2][12]. Business Development and Pipeline - CSPC's business development efforts are expected to create a sustainable revenue stream, with a robust pipeline of 40-50 assets identified for out-licensing potential [7]. - The company is focusing on clinical trials for its EGFR ADC (SYS6010), which is currently in Phase 3 development globally [7]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization is reported at HK$ 58,871 million, with a 52-week high of HK $7.12 and a low of HK$ 4.34 [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.9% and a 3-month performance of 3.3% [5].