CHINA RES GAS(01193) 东吴证券·2025-04-01 05:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a reported revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.90%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.74% to HKD 4.09 billion [7] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for the year, corresponding to a payout ratio of 53% of core profits and a dividend yield of 4.1% [7] - The report indicates that the company's core profit growth is not meeting expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected retail gas volume growth and revenue from integrated energy and services [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 102,676 million, with a slight increase of 0.90% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 4,088 million, reflecting a decrease of 21.74% [1][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.77, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.13 [1][8] Business Segments - City Gas: Revenue increased by 3.4% to HKD 88.80 billion, with a segment profit margin of 65.1%. Retail gas volume grew by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters [7] - Connection Services: Revenue decreased by 15.0% to HKD 9.25 billion, with a significant drop in new connections for residential users [7] - Integrated Services: Revenue grew by 4.0% to HKD 4.21 billion, with a projected growth rate of 20%-30% for 2025 [7] - Integrated Energy: Revenue increased by 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with energy sales volume rising by 27.2% [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a free cash flow of HKD 2.58 billion for 2024, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year. Capital expenditures are projected at HKD 4.42 billion [7] - The dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.95 per share, with expectations to increase the dividend amount or payout ratio in 2025 [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 4.46 billion for 2025 and HKD 4.90 billion for 2026, with a growth rate of approximately 9.2% to 9.9% for the following years [7][8]