中国重汽（000951）：业绩超预期，看好景气向上释放弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 25.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy for National III vehicles, which is expected to release additional demand. The company is also benefiting from cost control measures and its leading market position, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 as the policy expands to National IV vehicles and LNG trucks [1][3]. - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 8.68% for 2024, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin is projected at 3.29%, up 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a decrease in selling and administrative expenses [2][4]. - The total sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is expected to reach 1.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is attributed to the expanded scope of the "old-for-new" policy and improved market conditions, which are likely to enhance both volume and pricing for the industry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 44.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.80%, and a net profit of 1.48 billion RMB, up 36.96% year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue is expected to be 113.42 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.32% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.47% [1][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 55%, with a cash dividend of 4.05 RMB per 10 shares [2][4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.50 RMB in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 17 times, reflecting its strong market position and profit elasticity [4][6]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is anticipated to experience a favorable environment in 2025, with improved demand driven by government policies and market dynamics. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, enhancing its profitability and market share [3][4].