华润燃气：2024年年报点评：业绩承压，分红比例稳增-20250401

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a reported revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.90%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.74% to HKD 4.09 billion [7] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for the year, corresponding to a payout ratio of 53% of core profits and a dividend yield of 4.1% [7] - The report highlights that the company's core profit growth was below expectations, primarily due to slower growth in retail gas volume and revenue from integrated energy and services [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 102,676 million, with a slight increase of 0.90% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 4,088 million, reflecting a decrease of 21.74% [1][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.77, with a P/E ratio of 13.13 [1][8] Business Segments - City Gas: Revenue increased by 3.4% to HKD 88.80 billion, with retail gas volume up by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters [7] - Connection Services: Revenue decreased by 15.0% to HKD 9.25 billion, with new residential connections down by 15.8% [7] - Integrated Services: Revenue grew by 4.0% to HKD 4.21 billion, with a projected growth rate of 20%-30% for 2025 [7] - Integrated Energy: Revenue increased by 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with energy sales volume up by 27.2% [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a free cash flow of HKD 2.58 billion for 2024, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year [7] - The total capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at HKD 4.42 billion, a decrease from the previous year [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 4.46 billion for 2025 and HKD 4.90 billion for 2026, with a new estimate of HKD 5.38 billion for 2027 [7][8]